The market in 2014 is nowhere near as imperiled as it was during the housing bubble of 2006-2008. But Homebuilders may be overbuilt at the moment. Peter Schiff says, “If you remember, during the housing bubble instead of dropping prices, which would have been a sign of trouble, the builders started throwing in freebies,” Schiff explains. “Some of the developers were even throwing in brand new cars so they didn’t have to acknowledge prices were falling. Now they’re doing it all over again. Builders are loading up on incentives because they’re having a hard time selling their homes. This is really a precursor to falling prices.”
This is bad news for mortgage lenders such as Fannie Mae. They are in the business of making real estate loans and basing those off of market value. When builders offer furniture, cash rebates, and home theaters rather than dropping prices, it distorts the equity in each loan which can quickly evaporate if the home were to default. Lender have taken steps to prevent this sort of fraud prior to underwriting but the builder s will usually find ways to push the rules.
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XLB) has been performing miserably in 2014, many think that builders pulled the trigger on too many homes based on the strong sales figures from 2013 on re-sales. But these were heavily skewed by all the investor buyers that have since evaporated from the market. In many markets demand is still strong such as Denver and Dallas. But the vast majority of markets are seeing weakness on new home sales in the second half of 2014.
2014 Homebuilder performance